From 2d7a5313c32d2dd63aeecb46e8c6dc203d182c7d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: montjeffrey <montjeffrey@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2026 21:18:56 -0400
Subject: [PATCH] fix(gateguard): do not charge the ungated arm with
 gate-specific holes

silence-hole and coverage-hole are claims about the gate, and an ungated arm
never fires it, so classify labelled every ungated miss a coverage-hole by
construction. In the 48-trial run that padded the hole counts with five rows
that say nothing about the gate: coverage-hole read 7 when only 2 were the
gate's. Label an ungated miss unaided-miss, which is the baseline rate and is
excluded from the holes list.
---
 docker/gateguard-effectiveness/coverage.js | 12 +++++++++++-
 tests/docker/gateguard-intent.test.js      |  3 +++
 2 files changed, 14 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-)

diff --git a/docker/gateguard-effectiveness/coverage.js b/docker/gateguard-effectiveness/coverage.js
index aa5f078d0..bee2bc412 100644
--- a/docker/gateguard-effectiveness/coverage.js
+++ b/docker/gateguard-effectiveness/coverage.js
@@ -23,18 +23,28 @@ const MIN_PAIRS_FOR_A_CLAIM = 20;
 const CLASSES = Object.freeze({
   working: 'the deciding fact was obtained and the outcome is right',
   lucky: 'right outcome without ever asking: the scenario does not force the question',
+  'unaided-miss': 'an ungated arm missed: the baseline rate, not a gate hole',
   'follow-through-hole': 'the deciding fact was obtained and the outcome is still wrong',
   'targeting-hole': 'the agent asked, but not for the deciding fact',
   'silence-hole': 'the gate fired and the agent still did not ask',
   'coverage-hole': 'a deciding ambiguity the gate never engaged, and the outcome is wrong'
 });
 
-/** Classifies one trial from its behaviour alone. */
+/**
+ * Classifies one trial from its behaviour alone.
+ *
+ * silence-hole and coverage-hole are statements about the gate, so they are only
+ * reachable for a gated arm. An ungated arm never fires the gate, so without
+ * this it would have every miss labelled coverage-hole by construction, which
+ * padded the hole counts with rows that say nothing about the gate.
+ */
 function classify(row) {
+  const gated = row.gated === undefined ? row.arm !== 'off' : row.gated;
   const gateFired = Number(row.gateDenials) > 0;
   if (row.disclosedDecisive) return row.passed ? 'working' : 'follow-through-hole';
   if (row.asked) return 'targeting-hole';
   if (row.passed) return 'lucky';
+  if (!gated) return 'unaided-miss';
   return gateFired ? 'silence-hole' : 'coverage-hole';
 }
 
diff --git a/tests/docker/gateguard-intent.test.js b/tests/docker/gateguard-intent.test.js
index d2c4afaab..0b6059c2c 100644
--- a/tests/docker/gateguard-intent.test.js
+++ b/tests/docker/gateguard-intent.test.js
@@ -124,6 +124,9 @@ test('classify maps each behaviour to its hole', () => {
     [{ asked: true, disclosedDecisive: false, passed: true, gateDenials: 1 }, 'targeting-hole'],
     [{ asked: false, passed: false, gateDenials: 3 }, 'silence-hole'],
     [{ asked: false, passed: false, gateDenials: 0 }, 'coverage-hole'],
+    // The gate-specific holes are unreachable for an arm that has no gate, or
+    // every ungated miss is a coverage-hole by construction.
+    [{ arm: 'off', gated: false, asked: false, passed: false, gateDenials: 0 }, 'unaided-miss'],
     [{ asked: false, passed: true, gateDenials: 0 }, 'lucky']
   ];
   for (const [fields, expected] of cases) {