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ECC/docker
montjeffrey acf4980442 fix(gateguard): report intervals and an exact test next to the hole counts
The hidden-intent report printed bare counts. run.js reported Wilson intervals,
a bootstrap paired difference and an exact McNemar test, and that machinery was
lost in the new runner, so four trials rendered as a table that reads like a
result. On this run it is not one: gate 1/2 against off 0/2 gives intervals of
9%-91% and 0%-66%, a paired difference of -50% with a 95% interval spanning
-100% to 0%, and McNemar p = 1.000.

Reuse lib.js's pairedComparison and ai-eval-lib's wilson rather than adding a
second statistics path, and state the shortfall in words whenever a comparison
has fewer than twenty pairs: about 20 trials per arm are needed for 80% power on
a 40-point pass-rate difference at a two-sided 5% level, about 36 for 30 points,
and about 160 for the 15-point threshold the pilot pre-registered.

Mean turns and cost sit in the same table, because the only efficiency figure
this harness has produced points the other way: the gate roughly doubles turns
and cost per trial.
2026-10-04 22:40:42 -04:00
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