diff --git a/backend/apps/subscription/free_trial.py b/backend/apps/subscription/free_trial.py
index de7170ac..4f8786f1 100644
--- a/backend/apps/subscription/free_trial.py
+++ b/backend/apps/subscription/free_trial.py
@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ forced cheap model; this module only mirrors state into settings and 9Router.
 
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+import asyncio
 import hashlib
 import logging
 import os
@@ -160,6 +161,7 @@ async def arm_free_trial(settings_obj) -> dict:
     if mode not in ("own_key", "free-trial"):
         return {"armed": False, "reason": "other_mode"}
     own = _has_own_model(settings_obj)
+    has_sub = False
     if not own:
         # A subscription lives in 9Router, not settings, and 9Router now starts in
         # the BACKGROUND (non-blocking boot), so at first-launch mint time it isn't
@@ -174,7 +176,19 @@ async def arm_free_trial(settings_obj) -> dict:
             await _ensure_9r()
         except Exception:
             pass
-    if own or await _has_connected_subscription():
+        # 9Router's /api/providers can lag /v1/models (what is_running probes) by a
+        # beat on a cold start, so a real sub can read as absent for a sub-second
+        # window. Re-check a few times before concluding "no sub", so we never arm
+        # over a sub that's merely still loading. CAPPED on purpose: a genuinely
+        # sub-less user exhausts these in ~1.2s and falls through to arm, so this
+        # never waits on a subscription that doesn't exist.
+        for _i in range(5):
+            if await _has_connected_subscription():
+                has_sub = True
+                break
+            if _i < 4:
+                await asyncio.sleep(0.3)
+    if own or has_sub:
         # A real model exists now (key, custom provider, or a 9Router sub). If we
         # were on the free lane, hand the wheel back instead of re-arming.
         if mode == "free-trial":
diff --git a/backend/tests/test_free_trial.py b/backend/tests/test_free_trial.py
index 2e7b2df2..bc4cc522 100644
--- a/backend/tests/test_free_trial.py
+++ b/backend/tests/test_free_trial.py
@@ -91,6 +91,57 @@ async def test_arm_waits_for_9router_before_shadowing_a_background_started_sub(m
     assert s.default_model != "haiku"
 
 
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_arm_tolerates_provider_load_lag(monkeypatch):
+    """9Router's /api/providers can lag is_running on a cold start. arm must re-check
+    a few times so a sub that loads a beat late is still caught, not shadowed."""
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ft, "save_settings_async", _noop)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ft, "_sync_routing", _noop)
+
+    async def fake_ensure_running():
+        return None
+
+    calls = {"n": 0}
+    async def lagging_sub():
+        calls["n"] += 1
+        return calls["n"] >= 3  # empty for the first two probes, then the sub appears
+
+    import backend.apps.nine_router as nr
+    monkeypatch.setattr(nr, "ensure_running", fake_ensure_running)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ft, "_has_connected_subscription", lagging_sub)
+
+    s = AppSettings()
+    res = await ft.arm_free_trial(s)
+    assert res["reason"] == "has_model", res
+    assert s.default_model != "haiku"
+    assert calls["n"] >= 3, "should have re-checked past the lagging-empty probes"
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_arm_with_no_sub_is_bounded_and_falls_through_to_arm(monkeypatch):
+    """The 'don't poll for something that doesn't exist' guarantee: a genuinely
+    sub-less user must exhaust the re-checks quickly and PROCEED to arm, never hang."""
+    async def fake_ensure_running():
+        return None
+    async def never_sub():
+        return False
+
+    import time
+    import backend.apps.nine_router as nr
+    monkeypatch.setattr(nr, "ensure_running", fake_ensure_running)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ft, "_has_connected_subscription", never_sub)
+    # Short-circuit before the cloud mint so the test stays offline + deterministic;
+    # reaching this branch proves arm did NOT falsely conclude has_model.
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ft, "_fingerprint", lambda _s: None)
+
+    s = AppSettings()
+    t = time.monotonic()
+    res = await ft.arm_free_trial(s)
+    elapsed = time.monotonic() - t
+    assert res["reason"] == "no_fingerprint", res  # got past the sub guard to the arm path
+    assert elapsed < 3.0, f"re-check budget not bounded: {elapsed:.2f}s"
+
+
 @pytest.mark.asyncio
 async def test_clear_reverts_forced_haiku_so_it_doesnt_outlive_the_trial(monkeypatch):
     monkeypatch.setattr(ft, "save_settings_async", _noop)