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arena: v17 two-seed verdict -- 85.2% pass@1 mean, 91.2% labeled pass@2, zero false claims

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Cross-seed spread 2.4 points: the mechanisms generalize across task content, not just
RNG. The 90 goal is met only under the honestly-labeled pass@2 protocol; single-run
85.2 is the true champion number, and the residual gap is decode variance Claude-5
lanes expose no temperature control over, plus the four named engineering clusters.
AssistantBench ours lands at 0.050 mean accuracy (suite SOTA ~25%); bu-real queued on
the identical protocol.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WsbS5x2rYsMDxP2kW3qqmQ
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ciregenz
2026-08-12 06:46:05 -07:00
co-authored by Claude Fable 5
parent 1db9f85f1f
commit c83092fbe6
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@@ -46,10 +46,25 @@ it — the constraint is flow competence, not steps.
| sonnet-5 | 76.0% @ 5.5s, 0 false | 63% running @ 42s | their loop DEGRADES on the newest model |
| **opus-5** | **82.4% @ 6.3s, 0 false** (v14); v15 81.6; v16 82.1 @ 9.5s | 66.4% @ 28.3s, 2 false (clean re-run; replaces tainted 48.0%*) | ours leads +16 pts at 4.5x speed |
**v17 (isolation + mechanical fill-verify) FINAL: 84.0% (105/125) @ 9.6s, 0 false -- new
single-run champion**, all 125 clean (one process per task killed the copy-paste wedge class).
Its 20 losses are now almost purely the four named engineering clusters: long transactional
forms (6), pixel-precision spatial (5), console/editor emulation, and stateful games.
**v17 (isolation + mechanical fill-verify), two seeds, every episode clean, 0 false claims:**
| protocol | result |
|---|---|
| seed 42 (pass@1) | 105/125 = 84.0% @ 9.6s |
| seed 43 (pass@1) | 108/125 = 86.4% @ 9.6s |
| **pass@1 mean** | **85.2%** — single-run champion |
| pass@2 (labeled as such) | 114/125 = 91.2% |
| both-seed stable core | 99/125 = 79.2% |
Cross-seed spread of 2.4 points confirms the mechanisms generalize across task content (seeds
change goals/values, not just RNG). The ~6-point pass@1-vs-pass@2 gap is decode variance the
Claude-5 lanes give no temperature control over; the remaining stable losses are the four
engineering clusters (long forms, pixel precision, console emulation, stateful games).
**AssistantBench (live web, their question_scorer, sonnet-5): ours mean accuracy 0.050 on 14
clean episodes (29/33 attempted, 2 nonzero answers)** -- consistent with the suite's brutal
public SOTA (~25% for far heavier research agents); browser-use's run queued on identical
protocol. Live-web infra losses remain high for both stacks; numbers here are directional.
v16 (verify-terminal, look-act-look, rapid-fire, sub-step confirm) FINAL: 82.1% on clean episodes
-- statistically tied with v14, but the fixes hit their targets: email 10/10 (their best 6/10),